Brussels had its reality check this week.

Posted on: 12 December 2025

Four stories out of Brussels this week. Seemingly unconnected. Actually, four variations on the same theme: what happens when rule-writers meet those who control the pipes.

For British readers, there's an uncomfortable twist. Everything happening to the EU right now? We're doing exactly the same thing.

Musk and the €120 million parking ticket

The European Commission spent two years crafting a €120 million fine against X. Two years. For a sum Musk earns while scrolling his own timeline. The official reasoning: the blue checkmark deceives users, advertising isn't transparent, researchers can't access data.

All true. All beside the point.

The interesting detail lies elsewhere: internal sources admit they took so long because they wanted to "build a strong legal case anticipating that X will sue." Translation: they knew Musk would fight back, and they were scared.

Scared of what, exactly? Not the lawsuit. Something subtler. Musk controls the infrastructure on which European politicians build their visibility. An algorithmic retaliation - less reach, fewer impressions, disappearing from timelines - is technically unprovable and politically devastating.

Musk's response? "The EU should be abolished." No lawyers, no diplomatic statements. Seven words on X and done.

Now here's the uncomfortable bit for British readers: we have our own version. The Online Safety Act. Same logic. Same enforcement approach. And Musk's response? Identical. "Suppression of the people." Ofcom is being "heavy-handed." Free speech is under threat.

We left the EU, then built the same machine with different branding.

The shadow fleet and the limits of lawfare

Russia bypassed the oil price cap with a trick as old as the sea: decrepit tankers, flags of convenience, non-existent insurance. Over 500 ships carrying Russian crude to whoever wants to buy it, sanctions be damned.

The EU responds with what it knows how to do: more lists, more bans, more sanctions. This week, another 43 vessels added to the blacklist.

The UK? We're doing exactly the same. Actually, we've sanctioned more shadow fleet ships than any other European country - 520 vessels versus the EU's 557. Take that, Brussels.

Except... the tankers are still sailing. A Russian vessel heading for India doesn't stop because an office in London put it on a list. It stops if someone physically stops it. And for that you need warships, not lawyers.

There's an interesting legal debate about "reinterpreting" the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea to give coastal states more powers. It's a legitimate debate. But when you need to reinterpret international law to make your sanctions work, perhaps the problem isn't the interpretation.

It's trying to apply a software patch to a hardware problem. And we're doing it too.

Ten years of Paris: from Greta to Beijing

December 2015, the Paris Agreement. Tears, applause, green gavel. The world committed to saving the planet.

December 2025. The planet is still warming, but someone made money.

China produces 80% of the world's solar panels, dominates the battery supply chain, controls rare earths. While Europe organised school strikes and declared climate emergencies, Beijing built factories.

The UK wasn't at the table anymore - we'd Brexited. But we're buying the same Chinese panels, dependent on the same supply chains, subject to the same leverage.

The decade 2015-2025 created market demand for green technologies. The decade 2025-2035 will be collection time. And those who invested in production - not rhetoric - will collect.

Ecology has become a geopolitical asset class. Those who understood this ten years ago now set the terms. Those who thought good intentions were enough now sign cheques.

Inside or outside the EU, we're all customers.

The question Brexit didn't answer

There's a pattern in these stories. Europe has operated for decades on the assumption that writing rules equals controlling reality. It worked when the main actors accepted the same rules of the game.

It doesn't work when Musk responds to fines with a tweet. It doesn't work when China sells you the solar panels you've decided to use. It doesn't work when Russian tankers sail under flags of countries that barely exist on maps.

The British spent years asking "Leave or Remain?" as if that were the real question. It wasn't.

The real question was: which system is better equipped to navigate a world where those who control cables, ships and batteries have an advantage over those who control stamps and press releases?

And the uncomfortable answer might be: neither. Not the EU's regulatory behemoth. Not our own slightly faster version of the same thing.

We left the club. Then we built the same clubhouse, just smaller.

Perhaps that's the real lesson from Brussels this week. The problem wasn't the membership fee. The problem was thinking that rule-writing is the same as power.

Musk knows it isn't. Xi knows it isn't. Putin's tanker captains know it isn't.

Maybe it's time we did too.